Is the vape foreseeable before now?
Not long ago, the stock market rose so much that many stockholders made their hands soft. People who had never been in contact with stocks before quickly followed suit and entered the stock market. However, the stock market did not strengthen for a few days before it began to fall. These people who have just entered the stock market It's locked up, and the loss is huge.
In fact, people who have not played with stocks before and are rational will not easily enter the stock market, because China's stock market is very risky and is also affected by the epidemic. The domestic real economy has not yet recovered. At this time, the sudden surge of stocks is obviously impossible for long. Yes, this is foreseeable. Several people in our office began to discuss the issue of stock rises at the beginning. Everyone thought that the risk of entering at this time was very high, so none of us went to join in the fun. The later results were obviously We are all right.
In this way, we think of the vape industry. In the first half of 2019, the vape industry was still booming. A lot of capital and brands poured into the vape industry. For a time, vape was the hottest in recent years. Industry, but how many people can foresee the vape industry today?
I think that the people who poured into the vape industry from 2018 to 2019 have foreseen the risks of the vape industry. As an individual, when I had not yet entered the vape industry, I could feel the risks of the vape industry. After all, this has something to do with the tobacco industry. It is impossible for the government not to pay attention to the country’s huge tax sources, but at that time. -Cigarette's domestic market is not big and it has not been noticed yet. After I entered the vape industry in 2018, I found that the Internet had repeatedly reported the proliferation of underage vape use. At that time, I wrote The article expressed concern. My opinion at the time was: If the proliferation of vapes by minors is not resolved, the government will only be able to use stronger measures to deal with the vape industry. Sure enough, in 2019, the government took the use of vape by minors as the entry point and completely blocked the vape online sales channel.
As an ordinary individual or an employee of an ordinary e-liquid production company, they can foresee the risks of the vape industry, and that large company or an investment company that is accustomed to collecting information, how can they not know the vape What about high risks?
The reason why they are still willing to continue to invest in the vape industry, I think there are the following reasons:
1. Herding effect: China is particularly obvious in terms of herding effect. The popularity of vapes in the first two years was mainly due to the rapid development and controversy. Seeing that the vape industry is so popular, it attracted a large number of people. People and companies entering the vape industry are like newspaper groups to keep warm, thinking that since everyone is doing it, the risk should not be too great.
2. Benchmarking effect: Juul is the benchmarking enterprise of vape in recent years. The juul products have been popular in a few years. In 2018, Altria Group announced on Thursday that it would acquire 35% of Juul’s shares at a price of US$12.8 billion. Companies have seen the huge profits in the vape industry, so even investment companies with many sources of information ignore the risks and are desperate.
3. The sunrise industry and the market is broad: The main reason why I entered the vape industry is because vape is a sunrise industry. Compared with the traditional industry that is already in the Red Sea, I think the sunrise industry has lower competition and better development prospects. some. And vape is a product that competes with cigarettes. Think about it, how big is the sales volume of cigarettes in a year, and how broad is the prospect? Is such a big cake not attractive enough? So even if there are risks, there will be a lot of people vying to invest in the vape industry.
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